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The East African : December 23rd 2013
ON THE BRINK OF CIVIL WAR The EastAfrican NEWS DECEMBER 21-27,2013 Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA). Prof Kieyah said Kenya and Uganda will also suffer due to the many professionals that have been hired by the South Sudan government to help train locals and set up various institutions. Gituro Wainainah, the act- ing director general of Kenya’s development blueprint Vision 2030 called for calm, saying the EAC and the inter- national community would not let the country relapse to chaos. “The region must encour- age and support reconciliation efforts since President Salva Kiir has already said he is ready for dialogue,” said Dr Wainainah. But the director- general of the Lapsset Corridor Development Authority (LCDA) Silvester Kasuku said that the project planning and execution will go ahead as the au- thority has not received contrary communication from the Government of South Sudan. “We are on course,” said Mr Kasuku. He said meetings planned with South Sudan counterparts will go ahead as scheduled. South Sudan has 85 per cent of Sudan’s oil output — estimated at about 520,000 barrels per day. This offers the EAC a unique opportunity to have the country as a partner state in the bloc’s 13 Common Market and Monetary Union. In terms of geographical and geopolitical location, South Sudan could link the EAC to North Africa, Central Africa and other continental sub regions, the report indicates, according to a recent verification report on South Sudan. Additional reporting by Jeff Otieno agement, the current developments have worsened the risks to businesses and also increased the risk rating of the entire eastern Africa region. The risk of civil war is high and if it happens, it could open up the region to illicit small arms and endanger security across the region. It could also reverse the current trend of resettlement of refugees, triggering another wave of escaping refugees filtering into Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. It could also worsen the dire humanitarian situation in the country that is only recovering from decades of civil war with the northern neighbour, Sudan. On infrastructure, the mil- lion-dollar Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport (Lapsset) corridor project would suffer a major blow. Last October, at a meeting in Kigali, the presidents of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan resolved to fasttrack the project. A pipeline to run 1,500 kilo- metres from Hoima near Lake Albert in western Uganda to Lamu port on Kenya’s coast is one of the key initiatives under the project. The project is expected to be commissioned by 2017, when the two states are expected to officially join the league of oil-producing countries. In their meeting in Au- gust in Mombasa, the presidents of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda (Yoweri Museveni, Uhuru Kenyatta and Paul Kagame respectively) had directed government officials to ensure that the South SudanLokichar-Hoima crude oil pipeline is integrated into the Lapsset corridor project by December 31. “If Sudan disintegrates, Lappset will surely suffer,” said Joseph Kieyah, a principal analyst at the Kenya in Juba a≥my dan.” But in comments in re- sponse to queries from The EastAfrican regarding US policy, Mr Stevens did not express a similar commitment to the government headed by President Salva Kiir. A diplomatic source in Washington meanwhile pointed to an ongoing reassessment of US support for the South Sudan army. “In response to reports of gross violations of human rights committed by the SPLA,” this US official said, “we regularly review our as- sistance in order to best to support accountability, rule of law and human rights.” The Obama administra- tion has in recent months tempered its strongly supportive policy regarding South Sudan. Ms Kumar points to state- ments by Secretary of State John Kerry criticising government actions in Jonglei State, where human rights abuses have been widespread. And she cites “problematic indicators of a shift to authoritarianism” on the part of President Kiir.
December 16th 2013
December 30th 2013